Skatte- og MVA-perspektiver i en verden preget av geopolitiske spenninger

Trade Protectionism and Tax Challenges: Implications for Norway Following the Trump-Zelenskyj Meeting

The recent conversation between President Trump and President Zelenskyj in Washington, D.C., on February 28, 2025, has renewed focus on potential trade protectionism, including the prospect of new tariffs or import restrictions on transactions between the United States and the European Union. Should such measures be enacted, they would have direct implications for international tax and customs frameworks, with corresponding effects in Norway. Although it remains unclear which policies may ultimately emerge, it is prudent to consider how international corporate taxation and value-added tax (VAT) might be affected, as well as the adjustments Norway could undertake to safeguard its interests.

International Tax and VAT Perspectives

An important consideration is how tax and customs policies may evolve in response to escalating geopolitical tensions. Historically, trade disputes and protectionist measures have prompted many countries to increase or modify their tax and duty rates. In its 2024 Economic Outlook, [1] , the OECD notes that nations impacted by trade barriers may respond by adjusting fiscal policies, including corporate taxation, to recoup lost revenue from diminished trade flows. Consequently, EU Member States experiencing reduced imports from the United States or higher tariffs on imported raw materials may contemplate raising corporate tax rates or introducing new revenue measures to address resulting budgetary deficits.

In Europe, value-added tax (VAT) can be used as a policy lever to stimulate or moderate certain sectors, though it typically involves legislative hurdles and must comply with EU directives. Policymakers occasionally implement temporary VAT adjustments for specific industries in response to shifts in global markets or trade regimes. Should the United States impose special restrictions on European goods, the EU might consider targeted VAT measures, among other options, to shield domestic producers, spur local consumption, and manage higher import costs.

At the same time, escalating tensions between the United States and Europe may drive companies to realign supply chains to avoid significant tariffs, potentially relocating production or investments to alternative regions. Such shifts can alter national tax bases, prompting governments to craft competitive yet robust tax structures that support local business and employment.

Implications for Tax and VAT in Norway

Although Norway is not directly involved in any potential trade conflict between the United States and the European Union, its open, export-oriented economy may nonetheless be affected in several respects. In the Ministry of Finance’s 2024 Perspektivmelding [2], the continuing decline of petroleum activity is emphasized, underscoring the need for economic diversification and the promotion of innovation and productivity to maintain stability. Consequently, Norwegian industries such as oil, seafood, and defense are exposed to global economic developments, which could increase pressure on Norwegian authorities to bolster competitiveness through tax reductions or new deduction schemes.

A potential consequence is that corporate taxation could be adjusted to protect Norwegian export enterprises from undue harm if key trading partners impose new import barriers. Past experience indicates that when export-oriented sectors encounter tariffs or other external duties, the authorities may respond by implementing measures such as reduced employer contributions in vulnerable regions or offering temporary tax incentives to foster innovation and export-focused investments.

A further area potentially influenced by trade conflicts and global uncertainty is Norway’s petroleum sector. Under the Petroleum Tax Act, petroleum activities — including exploration, extraction, and processing on the Norwegian continental shelf — are subject to a dedicated petroleum tax in addition to the standard corporate tax. The rationale for this framework is to ensure that a substantial share of any extraordinary profits from resource extraction benefits society. Should global tensions—such as those involving the United States and Ukraine—affect oil prices and, consequently, the petroleum sector’s revenue base, Norway’s overall tax income may be similarly impacted. In periods of persistently low oil prices or heightened volatility in energy markets, Norwegian authorities may contemplate adjustments to the petroleum tax regime to maintain investment attractiveness in the Norwegian shelf while still securing an adequate return for the state. Such measures have been considered before during episodes of significant oil price fluctuations and could once again prove relevant if trade restrictions or geopolitical shifts diminish the demand for oil and gas. [3]

In regard to value-added tax (VAT), Norwegian authorities may likewise consider amending current regulations if external factors significantly disrupt export volumes. Should Norway encounter heightened tariff rates in key markets, one possible response could be to stimulate the domestic economy through targeted VAT adjustments. Such measures might include temporary VAT reductions for particularly vulnerable sectors or differentiated rates aimed at promoting domestic production. At the same time, any revenue implications must be carefully assessed to ensure ongoing compliance with EEA regulations.

It is worth noting that Norway’s economy is generally robust and can withstand a certain degree of trade restrictions without adopting reciprocal measures. Historically, Norwegian authorities have prioritized maintaining an open market and have seldom favoured protectionist responses. In the long term, this stance promotes greater stability and predictability in trade policy, affording businesses the assurance that Norwegian conditions will not shift abruptly in response to international conflicts.

Concluding Reflections

It remains uncertain whether the geopolitical tensions highlighted by the recent conversation between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy will prompt immediate changes to tax and duty policies in the United States, the European Union, or Norway. Nevertheless, this dialogue may signal escalating geopolitical challenges, underscoring the importance for both businesses and governments to remain vigilant and prepared to adapt.

For Norwegian companies, it may be prudent to begin evaluating scenarios where greater uncertainty arises—both through potential shifts in international VAT and tariff regimes and possible modifications to national tax and duty systems. Preserving competitiveness need not involve mirroring protectionist measures; rather, a targeted and flexible approach to existing fiscal policies may suffice.

Whether the global community is moving toward a more protectionist era or entering a period of renewed trade agreements and enhanced international cooperation remains to be seen. In either event, Norwegian policymakers and businesses must be ready to respond, fully aware of the risks and opportunities that may emerge as geopolitical developments influence trade flows, tax bases, and duty structures.

* The article is written for informational and discussion purposes and does not take a position on any political conclusions.