Quarterly economics update for FS: Q3 2026
The third quarter of 2026 opens with the two exogenous shocks that defined the first half – a trade war and an energy war. Together they drove US headline inflation to 4.2% in May, its highest reading since April 2023 and a third consecutive monthly acceleration. The defining feature of the outlook is that both shocks are now winding down simultaneously. Plus, since uncertainty itself has been the...