Financial Services Insights

The third quarter of 2026 opens with the two exogenous shocks that defined the first half – a trade war and an energy war. Together they drove US headline inflation to 4.2% in May, its highest reading since April 2023 and a third consecutive monthly acceleration. The defining feature of the outlook is that both shocks are now winding down simultaneously. Plus, since uncertainty itself has been the binding constraint on investment and hiring, its removal may result in a higher economic upside than consensus is pricing in. For financial services, this translates into a constructive base case shadowed by a single, familiar tail risk: duration.

As financial services firms navigate an increasingly complex global landscape, 2026 presents a convergence of geopolitical, technological, regulatory, and environmental risks. These risks are not only intensifying individually but also becoming more interconnected – this is amplifying their impact and complicating mitigation strategies.

The CEE region stands resilient in the face of global challenges, with attractive investment opportunities and robust domestic and cross-border dealmaking potential in 2024.

Explore our study on financial reporting practices of European banks. Gain insights into transparency, compliance, and key trends shaping the banking sector.