The C-suite’s economic survival strategy

Our Chief Economist George Lagarias shares his views on the market outlook for 2026. In our latest C-suite barometer, he explains the current geopolitical climate and other macroeconomic challenges for businesses as they navigate extreme uncertainty and volatility across markets.

Get used to the uncertainty. It’s not going away in 2026. The global paradigm shift that business leaders are entering requires real flexibility across all areas of strategic growth plans to tackle the financial and economic aftershocks expected from the last twelve months. 

Confidence is rising even as uncertainty deepens. This is not generally a surprise, but I am surprised by the level of optimism reported by leaders as they welcome 2026. Behind the uptick in upbeat outlooks lies a business world emerging from extreme volatility, geopolitical fragmentation and technological disruption, from which we’re still waiting to see the full fallout. Trade and tariffs are the most obvious area here, but we also see only 48% of organisations confident in AI delivering the best possible return and only 30% seeing it come to fruition in the next year.

We need to accept the world as permanently disrupted. It’s a stark warning contrasting with high confidence levels. Adaptability, not mere resilience, will be the defining trait of successful organisations in the year ahead.

“What matters now is agility. Businesses need to be able to pivot quickly when shocks hit, which is expected to happen in 2026 as the actual economic impact of trade and geopolitical tensions begins to surface.”

George Lagarias Chief Economist

Adapting to the three Ds: disruption, debt, deregulation

The global economic order is shifting from the Washington Consensus to a multipolar reality. Trade wars, tariffs and regulatory fragmentation are no longer temporary irritants, they are structural pillars forming the complexities of the new business landscape. Executives who expect a swift return to pre-2020 globalisation risk significant strategic missteps.

Tariffs of course, exemplify this shift. Initially dismissed as short-term political manoeuvres, they now form part of a broader geopolitical contest, particularly between the U.S. and China when it comes to what is now the next space race – technological supremacy.

Supply chains: the strategic battleground for ultimate success

Supply chain is where adaptability matters most and the key to success. Sustainability mandates, tariff pressures and regionalisation are making global networks harder to manage. It was difficult enough to build supply chains that were both sustainable and dependable. Now, with new restrictions and trade tensions spilling into third markets, it’s even more complex.

Economic outlook: moderate growth, high risk

Forecasts for 2026 suggest modest global growth – around 2% in the U.S. and 1% in Europe – but downside risks dominate. Inflationary pressures could resurface after April as the tailwinds of lower oil prices fade. Employment trends remain weak across major economies and geopolitical shocks could derail fragile recoveries.

C-suite executives are facing a high-energy task for 2026 and beyond, one that will require resolve. Decision makers will need to make bold bets and, sometimes, conserve strength. One thing is clear at any rate, adaptability is no longer optional, it’s existential for inclusion in strategic plans to survive and thrive in such a competitive landscape.

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