Economic resilience faces a new test as inflation risks evolve
September 2026: Growth and corporate profitability remain resilient, but the balance of risk is changing. Energy disruption has become a question of refining capacity, while businesses can no longer plan on the assumption that interest rates will fall.
The global energy challenge is moving beyond crude oil supply. Following the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pressure is increasingly concentrated in the refining system, where capacity is constrained and reserves of products such as petrol, diesel and jet fuel are running low. Refining margins reached record highs in July as seasonal demand, supply shortfalls and depleted stocks tightened product markets.
This distinction matters for businesses. Even if geopolitical tensions ease, refining capacity cannot be restored immediately. The effect on fuel and transportation costs may therefore persist beyond the disruption itself, creating further pressure across complex international supply chains. Companies should assess not only whether energy will become more expensive, but whether essential products will be available when and where they are needed.
Monetary policy is also entering a different phase. The U.S. Federal Reserve has signalled that controlling inflation remains its overriding priority, making at least one further rate increase before the end of 2026 plausible. Although higher short-term borrowing costs would present challenges, a firmer stance may help restore confidence in longer-term government debt and contain long-term financing costs. Greater bond-market volatility should therefore be viewed in the context of markets adjusting to a new policy environment, rather than automatically interpreted as financial distress.
For now, inflation remains largely supply driven. U.S. headline inflation eased to 3.4%, while underlying measures returned closer to their pre-conflict pace. However, depleted inventories, higher refined-product prices and continuing trade pressures increase the risk that rising costs will feed into wages and broader consumer prices.
Business leaders should prepare before that transition occurs. This means stress-testing financing plans against higher interest rates, reviewing supply chains for potential product shortages and deciding how much margin compression the organisation can absorb. Mid-sized businesses may be particularly exposed and should place balance-sheet resilience, pricing discipline and scenario planning at the centre of near-term decisions.
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