From tailwinds to turbulence: preparing for a more disrupted global economy
August 2026: The latest shifts in U.S. trade policy suggest that higher tariffs are becoming a lasting feature of the global business environment. At the same time, renewed disruption in the Middle East is adding pressure to energy markets, inflation and borrowing costs, requiring businesses to revisit assumptions built around greater economic stability.
For much of the year, companies have had to respond to frequent changes in U.S. tariff rules. The position is now becoming clearer. Average tariffs are settling at around 10% to 12%, indicating that baseline duties are not simply negotiating tools but a central part of US economic policy.
This calls for a change in approach. Rather than waiting for tariffs to disappear, businesses should consider how to operate successfully with them in place. That includes reviewing sourcing decisions, supplier contracts, pricing strategies and exposure to the U.S. market.
It is also important to distinguish between long-term, policy-driven tariffs and more punitive measures introduced to gain leverage in negotiations. The former should be factored into strategic planning, while the latter may require more flexible, scenario-based responses. Understanding the difference will help businesses avoid making permanent decisions in response to temporary measures.
Geopolitical developments add another layer of complexity. Renewed hostilities involving the U.S. and Iran led to further disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, where official tanker crossings fell from a pre-war average of 62 per day to four per day at the end of July. Oil inventories were also reported at their lowest level since December 1990, increasing the risk of further pressure on inflation and interest rates.
Yet the outlook is not defined by risk alone. Corporate earnings remain an important source of resilience, with earnings growth over the following 12 months forecast at 24% in the United States, 15.5% in the EU and 56% in emerging markets. Continuing investment in artificial intelligence is also supporting economic activity and productivity.
The priority for business leaders is therefore adaptation, not retrenchment. Supply chains and financing plans should be tested against persistent tariffs, higher energy costs and prolonged disruption. At the same time, businesses should continue investing in technology, skills and other strategic capabilities that can strengthen their competitive position.
Want to know more?
