Third-party concentration: a systemic risk issue magnified by AI
Technology resilience is increasingly shaped by organisations outside a firm’s direct control. Dependence on a relatively small number of cloud, technology and data providers means that disruption at one provider may affect several financial institutions simultaneously. DORA's framework for critical ICT third-party providers, together with the UK's Critical Third-Party regime, reflects growing recognition that operational resilience cannot be assessed only at firm level.
DORA introduced direct oversight of designated critical ICT third-party providers and strengthened requirements around dependency mapping, contractual arrangements and concentration risk. The UK is moving in a similar direction through its Critical Third-Party regime and enhanced reporting requirements.
More recently, the scope is expanding beyond ICT outsourcing. The EBA's guidelines on the sound management of third-party risk regarding non-ICT services reinforce expectations around governance, risk assessment, monitoring and exit planning across a wider range of third-party relationships.4
The central concern is concentration. The failure of a single provider can affect multiple firms across jurisdictions and disrupt critical financial services at scale.
For example, the UK-EU Memorandum of Understanding on critical third-party oversight reflects the need for coordinated oversight of cross-border dependencies. Supervisory attention is therefore extending beyond individual firms to shared infrastructure and concentration risk.
The rise of AI is adding an additional layer to this challenge. European and UK supervisory publications describe frontier AI as a potential amplifier of existing operational resilience risk through faster vulnerability discovery, more scalable cyberattacks and the exploitation of common weaknesses across shared infrastructure.5
The regulatory response has not been to create a separate operational resilience regime for AI. Instead, supervisors expect firms to apply and adapt their existing governance, resilience and third-party risk arrangements.
Recent FCA work highlights weaknesses in governance, dependency management, vulnerability remediation and operational readiness.6 Publications from the ESAs and ECB similarly emphasise the need to understand technology dependencies, test resilience and identify concentrations across critical technology ecosystems.
For firms, this means considering not only whether AI introduces a new threat, but if existing processes can cope with threats developing at greater speed and scale.
Third-party risk can therefore no longer be treated simply as an outsourcing issue. It is becoming a broader question of how disruption could spread through a highly interconnected financial and technology ecosystem. Firms should identify single points of failure and test whether services can be recovered or moved to an alternative provider in practice, including where providers rely on common underlying infrastructure.
For cross-border banks, the practical challenge is to maintain a common group-wide view of providers, infrastructure and concentration risk while meeting the different third-party requirements applying to each entity. This may require separate registers, classifications and governance arrangements across jurisdictions, even where the underlying providers and dependencies are shared.