Trade challenges on 2025: Tariffs, impacts and more

The Mexican government imposed a ban on imports of goods from the textile sector under the IMMEX program.

A 27% tariff on Mexican products imported into Ecuador across all sectors. 

To be confirmed: day that will come into force.

The US Court of International Trade deemed the tariffs illegal under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. so the government must take all “Liberation Day” tariffs back. The ruling gives the administration 10 days to halt tariff collection (but not return the money already collected). This affects tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China and the 10% global tariff.

It does not affect sectoral tariffs (autos, steel, aluminium).

The White House may appeal all the way up to the Supreme Court, but in the interim it will have to comply within 10 days. 

Going forward, the US administration will probably use temporary legislation to maintain tariffs (up to 15% for 150 days), but needs Congressional approval to extend them. For this to happen, it will need to build a case against separate nations within the next few months. Sectoral tariffs meanwhile, remain and may be broadened.

The most likely outcome is

  - An appeal to the US Court of Appeal and then, if needed, the Supreme Court

  - A 150-day extension of the baseline 10% tariff (up to 15%).

  - Broadening of sector tariffs.

  - Longer-term trade cases focused on the US's largest trading partners, like Mexico, Canada, the EU and China while smaller nations could drop below the radar.

What does it mean for clients and markets

We would expect a positive market and business reaction on the news. At the very least, the ruling paves the way to dent some of the sharp economic impact of tariffs and give businesses further time to prepare.  It could also help with retail sales, reducing crisis-level consumer pessimism especially in the US.

Assuming that an appeal does not succeed in the next few days, the main win is time to prepare, and also a cap on the breadth of tariffs – which can’t exceed 15% for the time being.

Still, we are very far from addressing the broader economic and business uncertainty. The White House can explore different legal avenues, including temporary measures. A 10% to 15% 150-day global tariff is still 4-6 times higher the previous average and can significantly slow down the global economy. The US administration can also broaden sector tariffs, agree with Congress to quickly build cases and approve tariffs just against America’s biggest trading partners, or it could simply win the appeals.  

A 25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminum products from all countries will take effect on March 12, 2025. Please bear in mind that Products from Mexico and Canada that do not qualify for USMCA purposes will have to pay an additional 25% (50% in total) Aluminum from Russia is subject to 200%.

Addition 10% to 125% tariff from all countries. Specific rates upended until July 9.

President Trump Declares Sweeping Tariffs.

Until April 2nd, Canada will not pay tariffs on any product included complying with the CUSMA (Foreing Trade Agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada). The products MUST QUALIFY AS ORIGINATING FOR CUSMA.

In response to the U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports, Canada has announced that it will impose 25% tariffs on $30 billion in goods imported from the U.S. A full list of the affected goods can be found on the Canadian government website. Click here for detailes information.

In response to the U.S. tariffs on Canadian automobiles, Canada has announced that it will impose 25% tariffs on non-CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) compliant vehicles imported into Canada from the U.S., and on non-Canadian and non-Mexican content of CUSMA compliant vehicles imported into Canada from the U.S. A full list of the affected goods can be found on the Canadian government website. Click here for detailed information.

Most UK goods face a 10% US tariff. Tariffs on UK steel and aluminium are eliminated, and the first 100,000 UK vehicles imported annually are subject to a 10% tariff (instead of 25%, roughly the annual average). The UK market is open to some US agricultural products, like beef.

A full UK-US Free Trade Agreement (UKUSFTA), initially negotiated starting in May 2020, remains on hold.

Some issues, like resolving the UK’s Digital Services Tax (which the US finds discriminatory), are unresolved and on hold pending future talks. 

A 25% tariff on Colombian products imported into to the U.S. across all sectors. 

EU favours negotiations over retaliation to Trump tariffs.