Against this backdrop, the Geopolitical dialogues with IFRI, led by Forvis Mazars, aim to provide partners with analytical frameworks to better understand disruption and inform strategic decision-making in a rapidly changing world. In one of the sessions in this series, focused on energy as a source of power, vulnerability and economic security, we had the opportunity to engage with Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, Director of the Energy & Climate Center at IFRI since 2017 and a leading reference on global energy systems and geopolitics.
His insights highlight a critical shift: energy is no longer simply a commodity or an operational variable, it has become a central lever of geopolitical power, economic security and corporate competitiveness.
Today’s global landscape is defined by two reinforcing dynamics: fragmentation across trade, investment and regulatory frameworks, alongside a growing reconcentration of industrial and technological power. These forces are not contradictory; they amplify one another and contribute to widening global imbalances.
Industrial capacity, for instance, is becoming increasingly concentrated in certain regions, fundamentally reshaping cost structures and global competition. At the same time, macroeconomic and currency dynamics are accelerating divergence between economies, while regulatory approaches, particularly across major blocs, are moving apart after years of convergence. Together, these shifts are redefining how energy markets function and how companies must position themselves globally.
In this evolving environment, resilience has emerged as the dominant strategic priority. For energy companies, this means going beyond traditional efficiency-driven models to deeply reassess how their operations are structured. A detailed understanding of value chains is becoming critical, particularly in identifying hidden dependencies and points of vulnerability. Companies are increasingly recognising the need to diversify exposure geographically, operationally and commercially to avoid over-reliance on a limited number of markets or partners.
This shift is reinforced by structural geopolitical tensions, particularly between major economic powers, which introduce long-term uncertainty into global trade and investment patterns. As a result, geopolitical risk can no longer be treated as episodic, it must be embedded into core strategic planning.
 | “We are entering a new phase where energy decisions directly determine competitiveness: companies that fail to integrate geopolitical risk and resilience into their energy strategy will be structurally exposed.” - Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, Director of the Energy & Climate Center, IFRI |
As fragmentation deepens, regionalisation is becoming a structural feature of the global energy landscape rather than a temporary adjustment. Organisations are progressively reconfiguring their operating models to reduce exposure to global disruptions. This includes building stronger regional hubs, rebalancing supply chains and investing in local infrastructure and partnerships that enhance flexibility. Rather than optimising solely for cost, companies are now prioritising continuity, control and adaptability.
In this context, regionalisation is not about retreating from globalisation but about reshaping it into a more resilient and multi-polar framework aligned with geopolitical realities.
“You cannot credibly promote a green energy project without demonstrating the sustainability of all its inputs but today’s global supply chains make that increasingly complex, particularly given the reliance on externally sourced equipment. Regionalisation could help to improve control over supply chains.”
Philippe Bozier Partner, Energy & Infrastructure, Forvis Mazars in France
Recent tensions around key strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz provide a powerful illustration of the vulnerabilities embedded in global energy systems. One of the clearest lessons is that resilience requires foresight and investment in redundancy. Infrastructure that may appear inefficient in stable times such as alternative export routes or excess storage capacity can become critical during crises. Conversely, highly optimised, just-in-time systems reveal their fragility when disruptions occur.
These risks extend far beyond oil and gas. Entire industrial value chains, from petrochemicals to fertilisers and metals, are affected when such disruptions take place. Importantly, even when stability returns, the impact does not fully reverse: markets incorporate a lasting risk premium, reshaping pricing, investment decisions and long-term strategies.
A defining feature of the current context is that, unlike past crises, technological alternatives are now available at scale. Electrification is emerging as a central pillar across transport, power systems and industry. The rapid development of electric mobility is already reducing oil demand, while advances in renewable energy and battery storage are increasing the flexibility and reliability of electricity systems. In parallel, industrial electrification is gaining momentum offering companies greater predictability in energy costs and reduced exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets.
What makes this shift particularly significant is its dual nature. Electrification is not only a response to climate imperatives, it is also a powerful tool for mitigating geopolitical risk and strengthening operational resilience. This convergence explains why financial stakeholders increasingly view such investments as strategically attractive combining risk reduction with long-term value creation.
The reconfiguration of global energy systems is also creating new investment dynamics, with certain regions emerging as attractive destinations for capital. Growth potential, resource availability and infrastructure development are driving increased investor interest in parts of Asia, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.
However, these opportunities remain closely linked to local conditions. Governance frameworks, regulatory stability and macroeconomic factors, particularly currency volatility, continue to play a decisive role in shaping investment outcomes. For international companies, navigating these markets requires a careful balance between capturing growth opportunities and managing associated risks.
Energy companies today are operating in an environment where geopolitical, industrial and financial considerations are deeply interconnected. Leading organisations are responding by embedding geopolitical analysis into strategic decision-making while progressively shifting their focus from short-term efficiency to long-term resilience.
This involves accelerating investment in electrification and low-carbon solutions, while simultaneously reconfiguring portfolios and operations to reflect a more regionalised and risk-aware world.
The dynamics currently reshaping the energy sector are not temporary disruptions, they reflect a structural transformation of the global system.
As geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic imbalances and technological change continue to converge, energy will remain at the heart of strategic decision-making for international companies. Those best positioned to succeed will be those that proactively adapt redesigning value chains, strengthening resilience and aligning their energy strategies with an increasingly complex and evolving global landscape.
Even in uncertain times, businesses are looking to grow their operations and open new markets abroad. Growing Global explores how companies can best understand, meet, and overcome the many challenges they face when it comes to global expansion.
Stay informed on global trade, tariffs and economic developments with the Forvis Mazars global trade insights tracker (GTI tracker). Designed for senior business leaders, it delivers strategic insight into trade policy and market risks.
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