Milk production in India and the path ahead for dairy exports

In a recent Mint feature, Ajay Kakra, Leader, Food & Agriculture, Government, Infrastructure and Development Sector Advisory Services, shares his outlook on India’s dairy sector as it approaches a critical inflection point.

1. In last fiscal year India achieved significant growth in exports of dairy products. How do we see, the way forward in 2026?

There is a niche market for value-added products and new consumers for India's dairy exports. Stronger cold chains, increased processing capacity, and focused marketing of specialty goods like ghee, whey, and UHT milk are what I see driving consistent growth in 2026 rather than a meteoric rise. How soon manufacturers and exporters can fulfill stringent quality and packaging requirements will determine the pace.

2. What are the key drivers that will shape India’s milk production growth in 2026?

Feed availability and cost, increased access to veterinary care and artificial insemination, and advancements in breed and herd productivity will all influence production. It will also be important to invest in small-scale mechanization, improve farm-level record keeping, and provide farmer incentives to boost yields.

3. How is rising domestic demand for value-added dairy products expected to influence the sector’s expansion?

Rising demand will push processors to invest in product development — yoghurts, cheese, fortified milk and ready-to-drink items — creating higher-margin opportunities This raises the bar for food safety and cold-chain dependability while also encouraging bigger, more organized firms to increase processing capacity and attract more smallholders into formal procurement chains.

4. What policy interventions are needed to ensure stable milk prices and better income for dairy farmers in 2026?

The main goals of policy should be to reinforce farmer-level risk measures like insurance and feed input subsidies, increase market transparency (real-time procurement prices), and expand price-support mechanisms when necessary. Farmers will be able to obtain a more equitable portion of the retail value chain with the support of cooperatives and investments in infrastructure for collecting and chilling.

5. How can India reduce the volatility in procurement prices, especially for small and marginal farmers?

Expand community-level chilling and aggregation centers, encourage advance contracts or subscription models for regular purchase, and establish more direct connections between farmers and processors to eliminate middlemen. Wider use of index-based livestock insurance and targeted buffer purchases by the government or cooperatives can help stabilize prices.

6. Will India need to import dairy products in 2026 to meet domestic shortages, and what safeguards are necessary?

If production and processing grow as anticipated, India may require selective imports for specialized goods or short-term shortages, but widespread reliance is unlikely. Strict quality and safety inspections, temporary tariff instruments to prevent market disruption, and unambiguous criteria so imports supplement domestic supply without lowering farmer earnings are all necessary safeguards.

 7. What strategies can make Indian dairy exports more competitive in global markets?

Prioritize branding that promotes Indian specialties, pack design and shelf-life enhancements, and consistent quality and certification. Invest in cold-chain logistics, bargain with target markets for hygienic recognition, and assist exporters with trade facilitation and market research.

8. What climate-resilient practices can help safeguard dairy farmers?

Encourage breed selection for heat resilience, water-efficient fodder irrigation, silage and feed conservation methods, and drought- and heat-tolerant fodder types. Promote the use of solar pumps and biogas on farms, the integration of agroforestry, and the availability of climate-smart insurance.

9. How can cooperatives modernise and remain competitive as private dairies rapidly expand?

Cooperatives should advance up the value chain into processing and branding, invest in digital payment and collection systems, and professionalize governance. Cooperatives may remain resilient and relevant by partnering with private companies for technology, quality assurance, and distribution while preserving farmer ownership and profit-sharing.

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Associate Partner, Food and Agriculture Ajay Kakra
Ajay Kakra Associate Partner, Food and Agriculture - Gurugram

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