Episode 1- When global disruptions hit home: Are supply chains resilient and prepared?

Episode transcript

Global supply chains are facing continuous disruption from geopolitical conflicts and shipping route risks to rising energy prices and trade tensions. What once felt like isolated events are now shaping the global economic environment in real time.

In this episode of The Thought Line, hosts Anukriti Jain and Devesh Chandra Srivastava speak with Rohit Chaturvedi, Partner, Transport & Logistics, Forvis Mazars in India, about how these developments are impacting global trade, India’s economy, and what organizations must do to build resilient supply chains.

The new era of constant global disruption

Anukriti Jain:
It's interesting how events unfolding far away are now starting to feel much closer to home. What once seemed like isolated shifts are increasingly influencing how the global economy functions. And here we are in 2026, where disruption isn't occasional anymore it's becoming part of the operating environment.

Which raises a larger question how prepared are supply chains to handle constant disruption?

You're listening to The Thought Line, a Forvis Mazars Podcast where we explore ideas shaping industries and economies across the globe.

Hello and good morning listeners! I am Anukriti Jain.

Devesh Chandra Srivastava:
And I'm Devesh Chandra Srivastava, and we will be your hosts for today's episode.

Joining us today is Rohit Chaturvedi, Partner, Transport and Logistics at Forvis Mazars in India. Welcome Rohit to The Thought Line. To begin with, could you briefly introduce yourself to our listeners?

Rohit Chaturvedi:
Thank you for having me here. It's my pleasure. I am Rohit Chaturvedi, and I lead the Transport and Logistics practice at Forvis Mazars in India.

My experience of 25 years in the industry, working with governments and companies both large and small, has given me a wide perspective on problems affecting countries, companies, and consumers.

Shipping route disruptions and global supply chain impact

Anukriti Jain:
We've been seeing headlines about shipping routes getting disrupted, vessels being rerouted, and concerns around key maritime corridors. These developments, even when regional, quickly ripple into global energy scarcity.

Given how closely India is tied to global supply chains, this becomes important to watch.

Rohit, what's really happening across these regions, particularly in the Middle East and Eurasia, and how is this impacting global supply chains?

Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz risk

Rohit Chaturvedi:
This is one of the most important issues not only for global supply chains but for the global economy as well. After a relatively quiet period, we are now seeing continuous disruptions.

It started with COVID, followed by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. More recently, Red Sea attacks by Houthis highlighted the need for resilient supply chains.

Now, we are seeing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz due to tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran. This region is a critical channel for global trade, especially between Europe and Asia.

In the first few weeks of disruption:

• Fertilizer prices increased by 30–40%
• Crude prices rose from around $70 to above $100
• Logistics costs increased globally
• Crude and petroleum products affect the entire supply chain. These price increases impact manufacturing, transport, and services.

If this continues, it may evolve into a global crisis unlike anything seen in recent decades.

How this impacts India

Rohit Chaturvedi:
India will be affected significantly because we are major importers of:

• Crude oil
• Fertilizers
• LPG
• LNG

The Strait of Hormuz caters to:

• Over 50% of India's crude imports
• More than 86% of LNG imports used in fertilizer production

This impacts India in multiple ways:

1. Inflation Pressure

Higher fuel prices increase transportation costs, manufacturing costs, and service costs — affecting everything.

2. Subsidy Burden

India provides large fertilizer subsidies. If prices rise, the government may face tens of thousands of crores in additional subsidy expenses.

3. Fiscal Impact

Higher subsidies strain government finances and affect welfare spending.

From efficiency to resilience: Supply chains are changing

Devesh Chandra Srivastava:
You mentioned the industry is talking about resilient supply chains. How relevant is this concept now?

Rohit Chaturvedi:
Resilience has become the key word after five years of disruption not just due to wars, but also tariffs, climate change, and geopolitical tensions.

For example:
Rare earth materials controlled by China have been used as bargaining tools in geopolitical negotiations.

Supply chain strategy has evolved:

Before 2020

• Focus on efficiency
• Low cost sourcing
• Logistics seen as cost center
• Limited board-level attention

After 2020

• Focus on resilience
• Risk diversification
• Multi-sourcing
• Strategic importance of supply chains

However, despite discussions, very few companies are actually prepared.

Why business continuity plans haven't worked

Rohit Chaturvedi:
Business continuity plans existed earlier, but they were largely theoretical. They were never stress-tested. Companies had secondary suppliers, but they were never tested under real disruption conditions. Many companies still assume disruptions will be temporary. However, events like tariff wars have shown industries were unprepared.

Role of technology in supply chain resilience

Devesh Chandra Srivastava:
Where does technology fit into improving supply chain visibility?

Rohit Chaturvedi:
Technology has improved visibility significantly:

• IoT sensors
• GPS tracking
• Maritime AIS tracking
• Real-time shipment visibility
• AI analytics
• Predictive analytics

However, the challenge is utilisation. Companies have data but are not fully using it for predictive decision-making. AI and LLMs now make analytics easier, but adoption remains fragmented.

What should organisations prioritise?

Anukriti Jain:
What should organizations focus on today?

Rohit Chaturvedi:
There are two levels of planning companies must adopt:

1. Balance Cost and Risk

Supply chains should not be designed only for lowest cost. Risk must be included in decision-making.

2. Classify Supply Chain Components

• Companies should categorize:
• Critical items
• Strategic items
• Good-to-have items
• Each category should have separate scenario planning.

3. Scenario Planning

Organizations must prepare for:

• Geopolitical disruptions
• Trade restrictions
• Shipping blockages
• Raw material shortages
• This should become part of corporate strategy.

Key Takeaways

• Supply chain disruption is now constant, not occasional
• Strait of Hormuz is critical for India’s energy security
• Fuel price increases affect the entire economy
• Companies must shift from efficiency to resilience
• Business continuity plans must be stress-tested
• Technology adoption exists but utilization is limited
• Scenario planning is essential for future resilience

Anukriti Jain:
Thank you, Rohit, for sharing these valuable insights.

Devesh Chandra Srivastava:
Supply chains are becoming a critical strategic topic, and your perspective helps understand the evolving risks.

Rohit Chaturvedi:
Thank you for having me. It was a pleasure.

Devesh Chandra Srivastava:
To summarise, companies need to focus on cost, risk, and long-term strategy to navigate disruptions.

With that, we come to the end of today's discussion. We will be back with more such conversations.

If you have questions or topics you'd like us to explore, write to us at:
thethoughtline@mazars.co.in

You can also find us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and YouTube.

This is The Thought Line- A Forvis Mazars Podcast where ideas meet insight to shape what's next.

I am Anukriti Jain, along with Devesh Chandra Srivastava, your hosts for the episode.

Editing by: Taranpreet Valjot
Research & logistics: Simran Sadana, Kanishka Gulati

Thank you for tuning in.