Autumn Budget 2026 predictions

Our Autumn Budget 2026 predictions contents

• What has already been announced?
• How could the Government pay for its plans?
• Predictions for personal wealth
• Predictions for businesses
• Upcoming tax changes in 2026
• Our key takeaway

What has Andy Burnham announced ahead of the Autumn Budget?

Since being appointed Prime Minister, Andy Burnham’s message has been clear: the Government wants to deliver visible change, rebuild public services and support long-term economic growth.

To do this, he’s already proposed:

• Cutting VAT on household electricity bills from October to help ease pressure on household finances.
• Cancelling the Digital ID programme to help fund the electricity VAT cut.
• Moving money and power out of Westminster, with John Healey saying the Budget will shift money into every postcode and regional mayors expected to keep a share of taxes raised locally.
• Cutting business rates for pubs, social clubs and live music venues as part of a wider push to support local high streets and community spaces.

Taken together, these proposals suggest a Budget shaped by cost-of-living support, regional growth, public service reform and the need to unlock long-term investment. But they also bring the central question back into focus: how will the Government pay for change while keeping the public finances under control and giving businesses confidence to invest in people, technology, productivity and growth?

How could the Government pay for its Autumn Budget 2026 plans?

With that affordability question now front and centre, Autumn Budget 2026 predictions are increasingly turning to tax.

While the new Chancellor John Healy may avoid broad headline rate rises, he could look for more targeted ways to raise revenue, with pensions, Inheritance Tax, wealth, higher earners and business taxation all in focus.

So far, Autumn Budget 2026 predictions have included:

• Wealth-focused tax rises rather than higher taxes on earnings
• Pension tax changes, including tax-free cash, pension relief and inheritance tax on pension pots
• Inheritance tax reform and greater scrutiny of estate planning
• Higher earners, frozen tax thresholds and fiscal drag
• Business tax changes, employer costs and the impact on growth and investment
• Social care funding and possible new wealth-related taxes

Autumn Budget 2026 predictions for personal wealth

Pensions

Pensions remain a key area to watch. Predicted changes include limits to pension tax relief, reduced annual allowances and further scrutiny of pension pots ahead of planned Inheritance Tax changes from April 2027.

Inheritance Tax

Inheritance tax could also face reform, with predictions including changes to lifetime gifting, the seven-year rule and the treatment of assets on death. These changes would make early Inheritance Tax planning more important for families and business owners.

Capital Gains Tax (CGT)

Other predicted wealth-related measures include a possible Capital Gains Tax exit charge, changes to CGT on high-value residential property, a mansion tax-style levy and National Insurance on rental income.

Autumn Budget 2026 predictions for businesses 

National Insurance and payroll costs

Employer National Insurance (NIC) could come under scrutiny. Predicted measures include reducing existing NIC easements for younger workers or apprentices or applying NIC to pension salary sacrifice and employer pension contributions, which would increase payroll costs and reduce the value of some reward structures.

Share schemes and business investment

Broader tax reform could affect the value of employee share incentives, particularly if Capital Gains Tax or Income Tax rates change. There has also been speculation about positive changes to the Enterprise Management Incentive (EMI) scheme, including a higher individual EMI value cap or wider eligibility for growth businesses.

VAT reform

VAT reform is another area to watch. Predicted changes include lowering the VAT registration threshold, reforming food zero-rating, extending VAT to selected services, or introducing a higher VAT rate for luxury goods. Any change would need to balance revenue raising with inflation, compliance costs and consumer impact.

Tax changes already coming in 2026 and beyond

Alongside Autumn Budget 2026 predictions, businesses and individuals also need to plan for tax changes that are already on the horizon. These are not new Budget announcements, but they will shape how individuals and businesses respond to any further changes from the Chancellor.

Right to work changes coming October 2026

From 1 October 2026, under new Right to Work changes employers are expected to have greater oversight of how labour is supplied across their business, including contractors, subcontractors, outsourced providers and other contingent workers. Businesses should review their labour supply chains, governance processes and compliance checks now to reduce the risk of penalties, disruption and reputational damage.

Benefits in Kind and employer reporting coming April 2027

From April 2027, employers are required to report and pay tax on most Benefits in Kind through payroll, rather than using the current P11D process. While intended to simplify employer reporting, it will mean businesses need accurate benefit data, payroll processes and employee communications in place ahead of the change.

 Employers should start reviewing their benefits, payroll systems and governance now so they are ready for mandatory payrolling and can reduce the risk of errors, delays or unexpected tax issues.

Inheritance Tax changes coming April 2027

From April 2027, most unused pension funds and death benefits will be included when calculating Inheritance Tax after someone dies. This marks a significant change to how pensions are treated for estate planning and could affect more families than the current rules.

Individuals should review their pension arrangements, beneficiary nominations and wider estate plans now, so they understand the potential impact and have time to make informed decisions before the rules change.

Headline takeaway ahead of the Autumn Budget 2026

The dominant Budget narrative is clear: the Government needs to raise revenue, but it also needs to avoid measures that damage growth. That means Autumn Budget 2026 could bring further scrutiny of pensions, inheritance tax, wealth taxes, higher earners and business taxation, alongside pressure to show that any changes support, rather than undermine, long-term investment.