Latest economic, market and investment news

Can Cockroaches fly solo?

From suspected loan fraud at US regional banks to renewed scrutiny of private credit, this week’s market update explores whether recent cracks are isolated or signs of deeper financial stress.

IMF raises global growth projections

This week's market update paints a cautiously optimistic picture. The IMF raises its global growth outlook, driven by support from trade exemptions, AI and loose fiscal policies. However, persistent inflation and renewed trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, remain key concerns.

Weekly market update - October 2025

From early UK budget signals to the impact of the US government shutdown, here's your weekly market update.

AI consolidation is drowning out shutdown noise

Two themes have defined equity markets since Chat GPT first spoke in human language, back in December 2022: The outperformance of US tech companies versus everyone else (just ten US stocks are responsible for 55% of the rise of all US large caps since 2022), and the lower-dollar/higher inflation which has favoured US large caps equities, while sending jitters in bond markets.

Behold, a cut from an independent Fed

The Federal Reserve remains largely independent despite concerns about compromised statistical agencies. While data quality has declined due to underfunding and low response rates, investors and businesses can still rely on U.S. economic data.

Markets react to rate cut optimism

This week, the world’s arguably most important central bank, the US Fed, cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4.25%,

Global markets react to US job report

Markets stayed strong last week but were shaken by a surprisingly weak US jobs report.

The trade war is not a shock. It is a slow train.

Strong supply chains, pre-tariff stockpiling, and low energy prices have supported economic stability; however, investors may be overlooking both downside and upside risks by placing less weight on forecasts.

Are markets complacent?

In an environment of unpredictable economic policy and shifting global trade dynamics, investors and businesses face heightened uncertainty and must avoid complacency by diversifying, managing risk proactively, and preparing for persistent volatility rather than relying on assumptions.

Are exuberant markets ignoring risks?

Markets are rallying due to easing Middle East tensions, falling oil prices, lower yields, and dovish signals from the Fed, which may cut rates by September. US large-cap equities hit all-time highs, buoyed by US Dollar driven profit inflation and rising liquidity.

Rising yields & global growth concerns

The White House has doubled tariffs on steel and aluminium, sparking global trade concerns - though the UK is exempt due to a new trade deal. In response to rising protectionism, the OECD cut its global growth forecast, warning of inflation and supply chain risks. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation eased, supporting rate cut expectations.

Does dollar devaluation equal dollar catastrophe?

In the last few weeks, we have seen the conversation drift away from tariffs and towards the more pressing issue of debt market dislocations.

A new chapter for UK-EU relations

Global equity markets dropped over the week as a mix of geopolitical shocks, trade threats, and fiscal uncertainty rattled investor confidence. Meanwhile, a landmark UK-EU agreement signals a reset in post-Brexit relations.

Eyes on borrowing costs

Equity markets may be rebounding, but ultimately, that’s what they do. Unless faced with systemic shocks, equities tend to mean-revert towards their upward trend, especially when they get assurances from the central bank that the system will remain liquid, and the cost of money will not soar.

Will Europe now become “Great Again”?

In the age of the “Great Decoupling” between the US and China, there are times when Europe, one of the world’s biggest consumer markets, seems less relevant, destined to watch from the sidelines.

Tariffs are still +10%

The UK and the US reached a business deal, alleviating pressures on steel and aluminium and promoting sales of industrial products, but 10% tariffs remained.

The three body (of data) problem

US data regarding consumption, inflation etc don’t suggest stress in the US, and by extension the global economy.

US tariffs: Navigating economic uncertainty

The global liberal trading and economic system is being reset by the US for a third time in the last 54 years, to reduce economic competition from China and increase the US manufacturing capacity.

The end of the beginning?

Market pressures, especially rising borrowing costs, have led the White House to backtrack on some of the more aggressive parts of its agenda.

Quarterly investment outlook – Q2 2025

US tariffs roiled markets in the first quarter of the year. Excessive optimism has sharply reversed and we believe markets may be focussing too much on the most negative scenarios. For patient, long-term investors, this shift may present compelling opportunities.

Tariffs through time: have they ever worked?

Trade wars are the weapon of choice for economic protectionists. Any industry which is considered key, for strategic or electoral reasons, needs to be protected. A state will impose an import tariff to discourage competitive goods from entering a country, usually until said industry is strong enough to withstand some healthy international competition.

US-China trade wars: a geoeconomic view

As geopolitical tensions rise and economic systems face strain, history offers valuable lessons for modern businesses. In this article, George Lagarias, our Chief Economist, looks at what business can learn from ancient power struggles and offers six tips for companies to stay resilient, adapt to change, and keep moving forward in a world shaped by shifting power dynamics and economic disruption.

Business and investors are holding their breath

Trade wars are causing volatility and uncertainty. Rising borrowing costs and a declining US Dollar suggest a shift from dollar assets. Prolonged uncertainty may lead to safer investment "bubbles." The US-China trade relationship is deteriorating, impacting global markets. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for navigating today's economic landscape.

The greatest economic gambit of our time

Investors and businesses need to look out for two things this week: signs of capitulation, either by the US government or its large trading partners and possible indications from the central banks that they would be willing to affirm their Put and absorb some of the damage.

“Liberation” day: Inflation now, but gone tomorrow

This week, 2 April marks the first official day of reciprocal tariffs. US automaker stocks fell significantly after the President’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on car and part imports and the market in general retrenched after a quick rebound.

Just how much should we be afraid?

What is certain is that uncertainty is prevalent in consumers, businesses, investors and governments. British businesses express more optimism in various surveys, but they're still at a cliff edge ahead of this week’s Spring Budget. The question you might ask is “Am I right to be worried?”.

Trade policy, inflation and growth

US equities reached correction territory before rebounding on Friday. What we have been living is not investors pricing in a brand-new economic reality, as much as a healthy reaction to a very expensive US, tech-driven equity market.

What’s the price of uncertainty?

Economic uncertainty mirrors pandemic levels as new US administration shakes global markets.

Uncertainties, dark horses & inflation creeping up

From the impact of tariffs and trade wars to the cautious outlook of major corporations, in this update, we dive into how investors can navigate inflationary pressures and market volatility.

Can markets keep up with the pace of change?

The world is changing fast, perhaps too fast and profoundly for risk markets to price everything in. The one thing we know for sure is that taking the present status quo and projecting it into the future in perpetuity will almost certainly lead us to wrong conclusions.

A survivor’s guide to the changing market

In the past few weeks, the US president has kept financial markets and business leaders on their toes. With a surge of incoming information, analysts and investment managers know that systemic risks are rising, but how best can they navigate these changes?

How trade wars could impact portfolios & business

This past week was predictably eventful, and the upcoming week promises to be even more so. The US President continued his reshaping of both the American and global economy, imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% on China beginning on 1 February, promising that Europe is next.

The US President's first week in office

What are the two things history students agree on? One: Every action invites a reaction, whether immediate or delayed. That’s how the wheels of history turn. And turn they do. Second: The full extent of consequences of actions may take years to play out, and even more to comprehend. No student of history, no matter how astute, can accurately predict the future based on knowledge of the past.

Quarterly Investment Outlook – Q1 2025

Looking ahead in 2025, there are obvious challenges to the global trade environment, whilst above-target inflation and the resulting elevated interest rates add further grit to the wheels of the global economy at a time when equity valuations are looking a little expensive. At the same time, acute recessionary and inflationary risks have diminished, meaning we remain essentially neutral in terms of...

Economic challenges facing the new US President

Donald Trump officially became President of the United States of America for the second time. In the last few days, we have heard a lot about the new President’s plans: a precipitous hike in tariffs, deregulation in the bank, tech, energy and pharma sectors, reducing corporate taxes, a “cultural revolution”, ending global strife, rewriting global borders, ending illegal immigration… and so much more.

2025 isn’t forecastable. But we will try

Forecasts are at the heart of investment management. Understanding the world as is, even perfectly, offers little value to investors, as that knowledge is “priced in” by financial markets. Forecasts, putting a price on future events, such as earnings, economic growth, inflation, etc, are where the true value lies.

2025 - The Year of Resilience

In the economic outlook season, the key theme is policy uncertainty. Change will accelerate, some of it will be good and some of it will be a miss.

Risky growth and bank deregulation

In the past few days, markets have been cheering at the prospect of deregulation, especially in the banking sector. The US election has become a catalyst for many government officials, across both sides of the Atlantic, to come out and advocate for deregulation. While upping economic and financial risk, it could be the key to unlocking economic growth in the years to come.

There’s a difference between expensive and bubble

Quarterly Investment Outlook – Q4 2024

The global economy is entering a more synchronized part of the cycle, but economies diverge.

Why the UK’s Autumn Budget is a global litmus test

The three things investors should know this week:

US Election - Less analysis, more popcorn please

The argument here is very simple: it may not matter who holds power today, over the longer term. We assign an era to a person (i.e. the ‘Obama Era’) but that person may not be as responsible as we think for economic outcomes. Presently, we are faced with a coin-toss election in the US.

The aftermath of the Fed’s rate cut

Do as the teacher says, not as the teacher does, an old saying goes. The exact opposite of that should apply to keeping up with the Federal Reserve. We have reached a point where we need to monitor the Fed’s actions ex-post, much more so than the narrative and justification for those actions or any comment about future intentions.

The Fed cut rates aggressively - Now what?

The US Federal Reserve came under severe criticism in 2022 for underestimating inflation and allowing it to run off. While there were externalities linked to price hikes (the war in Ukraine), the US Central Bank was widely panned for its certainty that inflation was “transitory”. It thus set a very hawkish course for interest rates that bond markets especially were not ready for, causing the sharpest...

The cuts are coming! But how many and how fast?

In Business School, they tell you about accounting, business valuations, business strategy, interest rate theory, asset management, economics, currency parities, valuing options, alpha, beta, delta, theta and so, so much more. What they don’t tell you is that real portfolio management largely consists of following and dissecting the word of central bankers. ‘Don’t Fight The Fed’ is a time-tested principle,...

Nvidia has us talking in derivatives

When financial professionals discuss derivatives, they usually talk about futures, swaps, and options. However, Nivida’s price falling 7% after posting second-quarter results that were ahead of consensus estimates seems to have the markets talking in derivatives, in a very different way.

An American Rate Bottleneck

Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is a valley in North America, wholly unremarkable in history for anything other than it was named by someone called Jackson who caught beavers. Yet once a year, when the US Federal Reserve meets there, the eyes of the economic and investment world are fixed on this tiny area in the Rocky Mountains.

Dissecting the market correction

In the last three weeks, global stocks have sold off, wiping out nearly $3tn or -4.5% of their global capitalisation, while global bonds have gained +3.5% by the close of Friday 2 August. Just this morning, Japanese stocks (which trade between 24:00 and 06:00 in UK hours) fell by -12.4%, the worst single-day drop since 1987.

This world is getting more volatile

John Buchan (1875-1940), First Baron Tweedsmuir, author of “The Thirty-Nine Steps” and General Governor of Canada once said: ''You think that a wall as solid as the earth separates civilization from barbarism. I tell you the division is a thread, a sheet of glass. A touch here, a push there and you bring back the reign of Saturn.''

Quarterly Investment Outlook – Q3 2024

The global economy slowed down somewhat in the first half of the year, as rate hikes in the previous months moderated demand. However, growth rates are still mostly positive, without major recessions.

What markets and businesses now expect from Labour

Elections often hold surprises. However, this UK general election did not. Rarely has a landslide victory for one party been so thoroughly predicted across political pundits and financial markets. As predicted, Labour won a significant majority, roughly 170 seats at the time of writing. Conservatives survived as the opposition party, and Liberal Democrats picked up a significant number of votes,...

Why politics haven’t panicked markets

‘There are no dead ends in democracy’, a popular quote says. The democratic processes in at least 3 G7 countries are certainly grabbing all the attention.

Sustainable investing

Sustainable investing has to be about aligning your money with your values, not outperforming the market.

Inflation remains the market’s main act

The UK will join the US this week in reporting inflation data, while the Bank of England’s interest rate decision is set to follow soon after. Retail sales data will also be released for UK and US, which will provide additional insight into the situation of consumer spending.

What election result are investors hoping for?

The UK is one of those rare countries that enjoys a G7 status, boasts an important economy, the global language, and is home to one of the world’s largest financial centres. Many of the worlds important investors are graduates of British universities. In what is possibly a perversion of history, this fourth of July the world’s uninterrupted attention will be on Britain.

If the economy is doing better

Global stocks and bonds rallied last week, on the back of slightly lower inflation and a string of relatively disappointing news for the US economy, which caused traders to increase their bets that the Fed could cut rates twice by the end of the year.

Adding Duration in light of inflation

When the US CPI print came in for March at 3.5% it confirmed a trend of three consecutive US inflation numbers coming in above expectations.

We need to talk about emerging markets

A whole generation of investors who started their careers in the post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) period have only experienced returns for emerging market (EM) equities which look like this:

New CIO Ben Seager-Scott's first thoughts

With the arrival of our new Chief Investment Officer, Ben Seager-Scott, Chief Economist, George Lagarias, asked Ben some questions on our portfolios and the future of investing.

Quarterly Investment Outlook – Q2 2024

Global equity markets entered 2024 with significant momentum from the last two months of 2023 fueled by falling inflation and hopes of lower interest rates during the year. Despite a fast reduction of rate cut expectations in 2024, from 7 to 2 (and even possibly none) in the US, and persistent Quantitative Tightening, equities carried the momentum forward, gaining 7.5%, a full year’s return on the...

What’s the impact of the Fed’s 'Higher for Longer'

Of ancient soothsayers, Pythia, the high priestess of Apollo at Delphi, was considered the most reliable. Why? Because she was clever. She understood forecasting to be a dangerous business.

Should we fear the correction?

William of Ockham was a fourteenth-century English Franciscan friar. As an unusually clever person, he wasn’t very much liked by either the church (for insisting on inserting logic into theological discussions) or by the Pope himself.

Weekly market update - Jenkins' Ear

In March 1738, a British mariner Robert Jenkins was ordered to testify in front of Parliament. He presented MPs with an unusually gruesome item: his decomposing ear. Seven years before, the ear had been severed by a Spanish officer off the coast of Florida. Parliament had had enough and voted to wage an outlandish war on Spain… over Jenkins’ ear. Eventually, the conflict merged with the 1742 War of...

The US government’s poison pill

A ‘poison pill' is a corporate tactic where companies resisting a hostile takeover somehow dilute shareholder worth. A common tactic is to take on large debt to make the company unattractive and scare the corporate raiders away.

Managing your wealth during times of volatility

February 2024. Following three months of positive asset returns, many concerns which plagued individual investors in 2024 have fallen away.

Weekly market update – This is a Good (US) Economy

90%. That’s the aggregate probability of a developed market recession this time last year by professional forecasters – yours truly humbly included. Economists often mock Wall Street by saying that it has ‘predicted' nine of the last five recessions. Or the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which hosts a top-line economic think-tank, and central banks all of whom last year saw economic difficulties...

Does the UK have a debt problem?

“Countries don’t go bust”, Walter Wriston, Citibank’s president (1967-1984) famously said. Debt defaults are a complex political and social calculation and when they do happen, it is way before a country runs out of natural resources. Yet, of all the economic risks in the next few years, none may be as consequential as the accumulation of debt.

Weekly market update – Did the Fed change course?

Did the Fed change course? The Market may be asking the wrong question.

UK consumer outlook December 2023

December 2023. Consumption is a key component of any modern society. It accounts for over 65% of GDP and is one of the most important indicators for assessing the health of an economy, with fluctuations in consumer confidence being a key indicator for predicting the speed of a recovery or the depth of a recession.

Death & Taxes: It takes a village to retain wealth

Stock markets continue to rally, performing their usual Christmas song-and-dance aided, presumably, by the tailwinds of more bullish projections around interest rates. A balanced portfolio performance is, as of this morning, roughly in line with what is expected after a bad year.

Shifting stock-bond returns correlations

The correlation between stock and bond returns is a crucial element of asset allocation decisions. When stocks and bonds move in opposite directions, holding both can help reduce portfolio volatility. When they move together, diversification is less effective. Understanding this correlation helps investors build balanced and resilient portfolios.

How markets could dictate the Statement's outcome

On 22 November, the Chancellor will be walking the usual tightrope between delivering as much government spending as possible while preserving the state of the nation’s coffers but the constraints that he faces are unusually challenging.

Weekly market update – Are rate cuts on the way?

Our Weekly Market update from our Chief Economist, George Lagarias, said: “Stocks have somewhat corrected, and futures traders have very short positions in bonds. There are now many scenarios in which one (or both) of these asset classes stage a rebound… and we should not write off 2023 just yet. September and October are historically the worst months of the year by far. This means that regardless...

Quarterly investment outlook - Q4 2023

Global equities had a volatile quarter, failing to find much conviction and ending down over -2%, albeit broadly flat in Sterling terms given a newfound weakness in the Pound. Bonds also struggled as interest rate expectations continued to grind higher. Index-linked gilts in particular sold off due to their longer maturity profile. Gold was flat for the period, while the cost of oil crept back towards...

What’s happening with the Chinese economy?

October 2023. If you have been reading the economic news over the summer months, you may have noticed that the Chinese economy has been a focus of the financial press. The Economist devoted two covers to this issue while the FT and the WSJ dedicate many long columns to the Asian economy.

Asset prices and the economy - where are we headed

October 2023. Making investment decisions is sometimes more of an art than a science, and the mere existence of the Efficient Market Hypothesis tells us that trying to predict market movements is, at the very least, notoriously challenging.

What a Fed pause means for investors

September 2023. When will the Fed pause? This is the million-dollar question.

Is Private Equity about to implode?

Every crisis has a response. In their effort to prevent it from happening again, policymakers put in safeguards and provide incentives for the next bull market. In these policies, we should, usually, seek the seeds of the next crisis. From the biggest potential risks, the Private Equity space is where we would focus.

The age of policy divergence

After the fall of the Soviet Union, the world breathed a profound sigh of relief. Humanity had come close to self-annihilation in 1962, when the US and the Soviet Union threatened to deploy their nuclear arsenal on one another, destroying life on the planet in exchange for control of Cuban airspace.

The global investment outlook - Q3 2023

Global investment risks remain elevated as tight monetary conditions and policy uncertainty cause shocks in several markets. We saw a rally in risk assets during Q2, but this rally was largely concentrated in a few US tech stocks, a rebound after a bad year combined with optimism surrounding AI.

Quarterly economic outlook - Q3 2023

The global economy got a welcome and non-inflationary boost from China’s post-Covid reopening early in the year. However, from this point forward, it is poised to slow down. Credit conditions are set to deteriorate, disposable incomes reduced as inflation remains potent and central banks keep reducing the supply of money.

Emerging markets, a mixed bag

July 2023. The first quarter of 2023 started strong for emerging markets. Globally, investors were excited of the prospect of the Chinese consumer returning to a long period of strict lockdowns.

Has the demand for oil finally peaked?

July 2023. With the popularity of electric vehicles and other cleaner technologies on the rise, the demand for oil is set to slow over the next decade.

Rational policy making: could it get any lower?

June 2023. As markets celebrate Congress’ decision not to self-immolate, investors reflect on how low the bar for rational behaviour by policymakers is, and whether risk premiums echo the present political and geopolitical tectonic shifts.

The US debt ceiling

May 2023. Crises in financial markets are mostly unpredictable and the result of a misunderstanding of risks and genuine mistakes. We could however be headed for a major crisis which is completely avoidable, save for the deep political polarisation in the US and some of the arcane laws in place regarding how much debt the country has outstanding.

De-dollarization

May 2023. In Pirates of the Caribbean, Jack Sparrow often trades in, or searches for, treasure in the form of pieces of eight. Pieces of eight were introduced in popular pirate lore by Robert Lewis Stevenson’s Treasure Island.

Investing money during volatile times

May 2023. To date, our theme for 2023 is that the world is a volatile and unpredictable place. This could have been our theme every year since 2006 and we would have still hit the mark. But this is not garden-variety volatility. Underlying everything are two themes. A geopolitical shift away from the post-soviet unipolar world, and the war against all that is not sustainable.

How will generative AI affect the global economy?

May 2023. Despite the potential for new technologies to disrupt industries and livelihoods, they could also be the key to unlocking the productivity growth we need to boost income and living standards.

How will AI change finance?

April 2023. March was a huge month for developments in artificial intelligence (AI). GPT-4’s impressive performance on coding tasks and standardized exams raised many questions about what jobs would be automated. In finance at least, we believe that humans plus AI will beat AI.